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an informed guess?

High Level Guessing.

Yesterday, we had an unusual balancing problem at the 2-level. Today, we have perhaps a more common problem four levels higher, “more common” if you regularly hold a solid 9-card suit after partner opens the bidding, that is!

 

Teams is the game and neither side is vulnerable.

The auction has been quite controlled up to this point though the opponents will not stop bidding diamonds. East’s 4 is described as semi-constructive, that is better than a pre-empt.

Even though the reward from doubling 6 is unlikely to be huge, I was surprised by the number of panellists who pushed on to grand.

We also asked the Panel that if they defended 6, presumably doubled, what would they lead?

Kris Wooles “7:  a little unsure but partner has bid strongly in the majors and we may well make and equally we may not have that much defence to 6. Good luck to them if they have made a good sacrifice. At Teams there is not much difference between +50 as opposed to -50. Hard not to resist playing in my 9 card suit.”

-50 and + 300 or +500 are a little larger difference when it comes to the score-up though I agree +500 does not compare too well with +2140.

Nigel Kearney “7: At matchpoints I would double but the magnitude of gain vs loss sways me to bid at IMP scoring. It sounds to me like we are in a force so I would not pass. But that depends on agreements.”

Offering other reasons why 7 might be the right call is:

Peter Newell “7:  Given partner opened the bidding, bid 4 freely and passed over 6, this all suggests that partner has a fair amount of values in the majors so 7 may be cold, or may require the opponents to lead the right major to defeat it. It Is not impossible that 6 makes either given the opponents likely have an enormous diamond fit with shortages.  I may have to lead the right major to beat 6.  The opponents may well bid 7 too...”

What then does partner’s pass of 6 say?

Stephen Blackstock “7: If partner hates his hand for his auction to date, he should double. In the light of some encouragement (uncertainty?), then looking at trumps of this quality and a diamond void, it seems clear to bid on. 

To put it another way, partner did not double 6. I may well have no defensive tricks at all.  Can I be sure he has two?  7 cannot cost much at worst, and avoids a catastrophe like a double slam swing. Even if we are missing an ace, East may misguess the lead if West holds it. The rule has always been that in high level competitive auctions when it is unclear who can make what  - bid one more.”

I would think that if our partner was staring at a club void, they would double 6. That reduces our defensive chances against 6x. Can though they have both major aces? Also bidding on was Leon Meier.

Let’s hear from the doublers:

Andy Braithwaite “Double: I would double and assume partner’s pass shows a good hand inviting me to make a decision.”

Wayne Burrows “ Double: Standard is for partner's pass to be forcing here and therefore to promise first round diamond control. We have a first round diamond control too. Most of the time this will be bad news as partner's ace will be wasted (but I know the hand of course). Maybe the crammed auction and constructive 4 turns off our forcing pass but we have still opened the bidding made a forcing bid at the three-level and taken a free bid at the four-level, so maybe we should presume it is our hand.

6 was already hoping for something good from partner, though maybe not unexpectedly good. I don't see how the bidding can be a long term winner. So I double. On a good day one club will cash.”

Bruce Anderson “Double:  I would not bid the grand playing partner for four key cards even though there is reasonable chance he/she has AK in both spades and hearts, of if not a missing major suit king is on side .

Grands should not be bid on hope so I would double on the basis 6 must be going down, probably at least two, given partner has shown strength in both majors.”

I do agree that 6 is unlikely to make but other panellists have referred to the up-sides of bidding here and the penalty from 6x may not be great.

And here’s the most pessimistic of those who do not bid on:

Michael Cornell “Pass: Tempting to bid 7 after partner’s pass but I don’t think realistic.

Partner has to have both major aces and 2 more major suit tricks as well and this does not sound like a hand where suits are breaking.”

There are other chances for 7 being the right call as we will see with the actual deal. Partner’s pass of 6 is significant but does it show enough in the majors for bidding on to be correct?

Before we see all four hands, here is what the Panel said about leading to 6, doubled, or even maybe not:

Michael Cornell “Q: I actually had the hand at the table and thought it was an easy lead. I thought it unlikely the A would cash so simply led my better major.

Even if the A was cashing, it was most unlikely that it would run away.”

Andy Braithwaite “ Q: I cannot believe a club will cash and partner has made a strong indication for a heart lead in the bidding.”

Bruce Anderson “ A ( K)  which surely could not cost.” (surely, it did!)

Nigel Kearney: “ If I did double, I would lead a high club.”

A mixed bag but on the day, the Q lead was worth an extra trick over those who led a club:

 

South could have had a worse or indeed a better hand for their partner if 7 was the final bid. Once the heart finesse worked, the grand was an easy make. Meanwhile, 6x was only -300 on Q lead but otherwise a mere -100.

There were 10 tables in play. 7 was bid and made twice, once doubled. It seemed club leads were more popular against diamond contracts as only one defending pair out of six collected 3 tricks, with two pairs defending 7x and 4 pairs defending 6x. One East-West bid and made 6 and another were a level lower in clubs.

At the end of the day, it seems that those who bid on had more of a case in that they had far more to gain by doing so. In this instance, how significant was South’s pass of 6? If South did not want to double 6, then perhaps neither did North. At worst, bidding on left the final guess with their opponents and that proved as hard as the decision had been here.

Richard Solomon

 

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