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A High-Stake Lead.

When there’s lots of distribution around the table and the opponents have bid aggressively to slam, you want to get your opening lead right, or as right as you can. Imps will likely be flowing in the opponents’ direction if you get it wrong. This problem came from Swiss Pairs where the stakes are equally high:

 

 

2 was Michaels, 5-5+ in the majors, “constructive or better”. 3 was invitational and 5 showed 1 or 4 Key Cards. What is your choice?

This came from a Swiss Pairs match. Where the bidding was as above, East made the wrong opening lead. I wondered what our Panel’s thoughts might be.

Holding two aces and a KQ combination, there were many votes for starting with K:

Lysandra Zheng “K: I don't expect both my aces to cash, but even if they do, I shouldn't lose anything by leading this. Looks like I need to set up a club trick and cash it after winning the A.  I am expecting that South bid keycard despite having a diamond void.”

Andy Braithwaite “K: South cannot have any diamonds and my hearts are not great so K looks obvious hoping South has a 6502 shape and I can grab a club trick along with A.”

Wayne Burrows “K: Almost always I am getting in with the A to cash the A, if it is cashing. Therefore the K (or Q if that is your style) will allow me to know whether it is a diamond or a club that I have to cash when in with A.

This is more flexible than the A at trick one (or A which might just set up enough hearts to allow North to dispose of clubs) and there is only a small risk that declarer has something like AJTxx and can set up enough clubs to dispose of any diamond losers before we can get back in.”

But the A does have its supporter:

Michael Cornell “A: Dummy is 6-6-1-0 and if you do not lead the A it goes on the A, the one key card the freak hand did not want!

That’s my guess. I could be wrong, I am occasionally!”

That might be true if South had received no encouragement from their partner..but they did! Need South therefore be that distributional?

Pam Livingston “ K: I do not think my two aces are cashing.  Leading the C may set up a trick and I am probably getting in with one of my aces.”

Nigel Kearney “K: A top club seems normal. For example, LHO AQJxx KQJxxx  - Ax and RHO Kxxx xx KJxx Jxx. If I don't set up a club trick, it will go away on the hearts.”

Leon Meier “K: if South has a 661 hand, then A is absolutely the right lead. However, 6502 is also very much a possibility in which case we would need to knock out the A now in order to ever score our Q. I think that their guessing to bid slam after a 1 opening suggests their void is in diamonds not clubs because they would expect us to lead the A. So, therefore the K seems better.”

Bruce Anderson “K: obviously N/S have a big fit and South will be semi-solid in hearts.

I am trying to avoid a situation where North has time to discard club losers on South’s heart suit, and so we can take a heart and a club trick to defeat the slam. South's hand may be something like KQJ xxx KQJxx – Ax.”

Good guessing!

Peter Newell “K: Good problem. I can find a case for leading all 4 suits...There is a good case for the K as it could set up a club trick.  However, if declarer has AJ10 and dummy shortage then declarer will be able to take a ruffing finesse and pitch 1 diamond.  If dummy has 3 cards in the minors, that will not be enough so declarer would need AJ109 (or 5+ clubs).  However, South has gone to slam and bid slam missing 2 key cards so quite likely has more than 5/5 shape and likely a void.

The A could work but given dummy could easily have a diamond void that could set up declarer’s diamonds to pitch clubs.  At favourable vulnerability, our partner has neither doubled 2 nor bid 3 which suggests declarer probably has diamond length.

One could lead the A and look at dummy and decide what to play next. However, declarer may have a heart void, or the lead could set up dummy's heart suit which declarer could pitch possible club loser(s).”

Finally, Peter discusses the lead that was found at the table:

“One could lead a trump to avoid the potential pitfalls of leading other suits, but it may be important to lead the right suit straight away.  So I lean to a black suit rather than red suit and I'm going to guess K as I think partner has clubs and hearts.”

It is time reveal all… and the majority view was this time the correct one.

 

North was lucky that their partner’s ace was not A but in this instance got lucky with the trump lead. It does seem that a more aggressive lead was called for. If we chose wrongly, so be it but at least we tried. The slam was bid at 4 tables and at the other three, the K lead gave North no chance.

That is not to say there will be days when Michael Cornell has been proven correct: just not this one!

Richard Solomon

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