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THE IMPORTANCE OF…..or Replacing the Guess

You can manage without it but without it, it becomes guesswork. You can try and guess what is happening with a deal, what the declarer wants you to do and therefore do the opposite. You can …but why play guesswork when you can work in tandem with your partner and know what you have to do?

Here’s the state of play with you East defending a confidently bid slam:

2 was a standard game force. 3 was natural and, bearing in mind North had already shown a poor hand with their 2 response, showed a better hand than a direct raise to 4. South checked on aces and bid the slam knowing their partner had one ace.

West led a low trump with declarer drawing trumps in three rounds with the AKQ, with you discarding a low heart. Next, South played the Q. What do you do? Where is the K?

Surely, if South had not got the K, they would have some better plan than playing the suit. Your partner might also have won with the king. So, let’s guess South has the king. So, you duck but the next card you see from South is the K. What now? If you do not win the trick, you may lose your A forever….and maybe your only chance to beat the contract.

What should you do?

What you should do is ask me which two cards your partner played on the two rounds of hearts. If you knew that, then you would not need to be guessing!

The Importance of ........  Giving Count

 

Not all the time but in key suits. It really does not matter which order West plays their hearts: they will never score a trick. So, tell your partner how many hearts you (West) hold and one day, this day, it might make a difference.

Let’s say you play “natural count” where low then higher card shows an odd number. Initially, West played 2, an odd number....Interesting…one  card (that gives South 5 hearts..no worries what you do)…..three…or five (surely West would take the king if West held 5 hearts?) cards in the heart suit?Therefore, you duck the Q.

On the second round, West plays 9. You know now West has three hearts. Therefore, so does South. Why does South seemingly want you to take the A? The answer is partly before your eyes….in the diamond suit!

Say you won the second heart and switch to a low club. South wins with the ace, plays K, a diamond to the ace, Q discarding a club and then a fourth diamond, ruffing your high jack. Now he returns to dummy via the J to discard the Q on the fifth (high) diamond. Contract made.

You will not let that happen.

As long as you duck both the K and Q…or win the second round and play a third round (that thwarts South’s plan too), the contract cannot be made.

The key is in the giving of count, in key suits.

Many play “reverse count” where a low card, then a higher card shows an even number. On the above deal, West would play T then 2 to show an odd number. Both methods work. Both take the “G” out of “guess” (success!) and help you in the very difficult art of defending.

Richard Solomon

 

 

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