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The best lead does not always bring the best results!

The Best Lead?

Well, you want to find the most challenging lead for the declarer. On the following board, the most challenging lead was not necessarily going to beat South’s game contract but it just might. What is your choice?

 

The bidding was natural with South’s 2 being forcing for one round. Their jump to game showed they had a little bit extra.

When this board was played, the most popular lead was the unbid suit. The cards were just slightly different from what is shown above in that West, and East had 3 spades each, though that difference should not affect the choice of opening lead. These were the actual four hands:

 

North's opening bid was aggressive though their hand did conform to the "rule of 20" for opening the bidding. 

South could win A, play a club to the king, ruff a heart and discard their diamond loser on the A. Next would come J followed by Q and a ruff with J. A second heart ruff would be followed by a diamond ruff. Declarer would have 7 tricks and still had AKQ to come. It would not matter whether the trump break was 3-3 or in our first example 4-2 as East’s spade winner would fall on the same trick as a heart winner. South could reach 10 tricks before the defence got a look in.

The unbid suit is normally a very sensible lead. Yet, could West have done better? The answer is “no", though just maybe “yes”. South did not give away too much about their shape in the bidding. They should have bid 4 on the way to 4 to show 5 hearts as North would have bid 2 with 2 spades and 3 hearts (false preference). However, West did know South had at least 4 hearts and there was a strong chance that South would like to ruff some heart losers in dummy. Look at West’s hearts. Therefore, this seemed a good time for West to lead a trump.

After a trump lead, South should make 12 tricks! Yet, they might make 9! It might be tempting for them to play K, ruff a heart and discard a diamond on A before ruffing a club high. This line would work when trumps broke 3-3 but since South would have to ruff with Q (the J was played at trick 1) and then play 3 rounds of trumps (losing the 4^th round to East), they would lose a trump and 3 hearts.

With trumps 3-3, and A still in dummy, four more hearts can be discarded and declarer can make 2 overtricks… but as stated above, a 4-2 trump break could defeat them.

Indeed, that is not how South should play after a trump lead. Ruffing a heart is not a great idea. After winning the opening lead, they should draw trumps, in four rounds if need be and then overtake K with A and next play J. It does not matter where Q is. If East plays low, South discards a loser and next time will ruff. A provides a way back to dummy. 6 club tricks, 5 trumps and A. Had West held Q, the defence could not take more than 2 tricks.

So, which is the best lead for the defence? Ironically, it is the one which gives the declarer two overtricks, whether or not there is a 3-3 or 4-2 trump break. Sometimes, South might go wrong when there is a 4-2 trump break. After a diamond, or indeed a club lead, South will come to no more than 10 tricks.

No West found a trump lead and therefore no South was put to the test.

Richard Solomon

 

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