What's the downside of rebidding 1NT with 15-16?

Every time we introduce something new or conventional there is a cost. After Stayman, one cannot play in 2 Clubs. After transfers, one cannot play in 2 Diamonds.

Which is why I am confused about choosing the point count of the rebid of 1NT. Take a simple auction, 1D 1S 1NT ?. The question is what to bid as responder. With 8 or 9 points there may be a game on. (We assume 25 points is the target).The normal method that most teach is the correct bid to enquire is 2NT, and it is usually agreed that with a minimum for the 1NT bid the opener passes, but non minimum bids 3NT, or 3S, with a 3 card suit, if they want to investigate a 5-3 fit.

So far that all seems straight forward. But unfortunately there are 2 schools of thought about what is the openers rebid of 1NT. Is it 15-17, as the majority of teachers seem to teach, or should it be 15-16, which was the original Acol system?

Lets look at the 2 scenarios. if the rebid 15-16, then responder with 8 points knows there is no game, and with 10 points knows there is game. That leaves the 9 point hand, they bid 2NT, and opener with 15 passes, and with 16 bids 3NT. Straight forward, no downside.

Now lets look at the 15-17 rebid. Responder knows there is no game on with 7 points, and with 10 points there is a game on. That leaves 8 or 9 points as the enquiry.

Lets look at 9 points first. Opener holds 15 and passes 2NT, but with 16 or 17 bids 3NT. 3 correct out of 3. Well done.

Lets look at the 8 point hand. Opener holds 15 and passes 2NT, and with 16 or 17 bids 3NT. Unfortunately 16 plus 8 adds up to 24, so only 2 correct out of 3.

But it is really far worse than 1 wrong out of 6, a 16.6% error. There is obviously more chance of picking up 15 or 16 or 17 points than picking up 15 or 16. Actually just over 30% more. And clearly there is twice as much chance of asking with 8 or 9 points than just with 9 points. I will let you do the maths, but it is not pretty. 

But to go back to the original question, What's the downside?  Well I can find no downside, only upside. So why do people teach 15-17 with all the downside that it entails? Its got me beat!

 

Started by STANLEY ABRAHAMS on 18 Jun 2016 at 03:30PM

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  1. NICK WHITTEN18 Jun 2016 at 05:03PM

    Advantages of 15-17

    [1]  Uses exactly the same formula for 1NT opening or rebid (bid 2NT with 23-25 total and 3NT with 24-26)

    [2]  No distortion required when responder bids a lower ranking suit at the 2-level  (non-jump rebid 15-17, jump rebid 18-19)

    [3]  Allows opener to rebid 3NT over 1 over 1 with a slightly unbalanced hand unsuitable for 2NT opening and not strong enough for 2C

    [4]  Fits in with Standard American where the ranges for 1NT opening and rebid are exactly exchanged

     

    Nick Whitten

     

  2. STANLEY ABRAHAMS18 Jun 2016 at 06:44PM

    Thank you Nick for your reply. To be honest I find what you wrote a little confusing, especially point 4, as we are teaching Acol, and beginners have probably never heard of Standard American.

    Now you appear from other posts as some one who wants to keep things simple, and the points you make are a bit advanced. 

    However my question was not what are the advantages of 15-17, and I have already pointed out the disadvantages, but the question was, "What is the down side of 15-16"

    Are you saying in your reply that we cannot do the same things with 15-16 ?

    The fact is that you write 23-25, and later 24-26, as if that 3 point range can be ignored, while the point I am making is that there is no range. We know if we have 25 or not.

    Regards Stan

  3. 25 Aug 2016 at 11:50AM

    Hi Stan

    I think the biggest disadvantage of the 15-16 rebid is that (in general) it forces you to play a 3NT rebid as a balanced hand - and that is a terrible waste of space that makes moving forward over it hard.

    By bringing the 1NT rebid to 15-17, it allows you to play 2NT as 18/19, and 3NT as articifical.  It keeps you lower on the 19 and 17 point hands, giving you increased space to invesitgate slam / denomination or to stop lower if you have stretched for a response.  It also makes the 2NT rebid essentially game forcing (unless the reponder has stretched to find a bid) so you needn't have a method to then stop in a suit at the three level and can therefore have better options for exploring slam / denomination over the 2NT rebid.

    There are also other potnetial benefits.  Most of the time you do not invite over a 1NT 15-17 rebid, you either know enough to stop low or to go to game.  On those hands if the NT bidder plays it the defence is just a little bit harder as the possible combinations of honours is a little bit wider.

    On a related note, I would not call getting to 3NT with 8 on dummy opposite a better 16 in hand an error.  I'd be okay with that, and in fact think it an error not to be in that game.  Same with 9 opposite 15, I'm quite happy thanks.  I tend to invite opposite a 15-17 NT with most 8 counts and just bid to game with 9 counts (prehaps except if they are really bad).

    It may get a bit harder for the people that are fisky with upgranding their 14 counts, but that is another story.

    Regards

    Scott

  4. STANLEY ABRAHAMS25 Aug 2016 at 01:56PM

    Thank you Scott for your reply, the only one after more than 2 months that addressed the actual question I posed. I am unable to respond to your points, some of which are no doubt correct. The reason being that this whole "conversation" was to be about what to teach beginners, improvers and novices. 

    Remember the last thing they need is a difficult dummy with 24 points between them.

    Most of your points are for better players, where judgement is key. For beginners the last thing they need are rules that can easily be broken. Just read some of the comments in reply to my, "one spade opening bid shows 5." They write in strong opposition, "telling them to just pretend that they have 3 clubs instead of 4 is too difficult, an abomination, etc.", even though the 3 card club suit suit is nearly always 4 or more. (I have given up trying to out think the maths professors.

    I will point out one thing, and that is frequency. 2NT 18-19 is very infrequent. My second last paragraph sums it up.

    Upgrading 14 point hands, that certainly is another story, and certainly not for beginners.

     

    I really got off on the wrong foot trying to point out the very clear problems with the present lessons on NZB.

    What I should have said is, "If there were no lessons on NZB, what would the teachers have wanted as the NZ standard for beginners and improvers." I might have got some sensible agreement on some of the points I made, although what to do to rectify the actual situation is not at all clear. 

    However it appears from the last minutes of NZB that there is a plan, and Alan Turner is in charge of it, though why we are not privy to the plan is unclear. Maybe Alan can open up something on these forums to let us all know.

  5. 02 Sep 2016 at 03:34PM

    Hi Stan. 

    I think the infrequency of the 18/19 2NT rebid is an asset... keeps you lower so more room to do stuff.

    For beginner lessons I agree with you (from the outside as I have never taught beginners) that the simpler the better.  Just get people playing and having fun.  Worry about the finer points later. 

    It is easier to play 15/16, 17/18, 19 structure instead of a 15-17, 18/19 (I’d not teach a meaning for 3NT – leave that for later) structure? Maybe so, but I’m not sure.  People will be taught a three point 1NT opening range, so should be okay with the same sized range for a 1NT rebid.  In a way, that symmetry may make it easier for them to remember.

    Regards

    Scott

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