Luck or skill?

To win an open pairs tournament is luck or skill more important?

Generally at the start of any open tournament there are only a handful of pairs that realistically are expected to have a chance to win the tournament. These favourites are recognisable as they normally contain two grandmasters. Within this group their favouritism will be ranked in proportion to their total rating points. But what actually determines which of these favoured pairs will eventually prevail? Luck or superior skill?

Taking the recent Palmerston North Christmas 3A pairs as an atypical example because the open tournament had a field with a wide skill/experience level. This tournament was won by Grandmasters Pamela Livingstone and Alastair Stuck (75.33% and 57.8% ) from Grandmasters Robin & Don Nightingale (58.85% and 67.2%). Fine results for both, with a comfortable win for Pamela and Alastair in the end by 7.08 %. Of the 64 pairs taking part by my count there were about a dozen Grandmasters pairs in the field that were favoured to win before the tournament started. 

A couple of boards illustrate though how different their results may have been:

Morning session Board 13 All Vulnerable Dealer N:

                               9653

                               Q83

                               AQJ3

                               76

 4                                                  AKQJT

 AK75                                           92

 752                                             K96

 KT532                                         AQ4

                             872

                             JT64

                             T84

                             J98

Pam and Alastair played in 3NT with East declarer making 7 after a  lead for a 89% board (3.7 %) while Robin and Don also played in 3NT with East declarer making 6 after a  lead for a 34 % board (1.33%). If either had bid and made 6NT they would have got a 95% board (3.95%).  Only with assistance from the defense can 7 be made.

Afternoon session Board 4 All Vulnerable Dealer W:

                                  -

                                  AQT

                                  AT974

                                  KQJ95

 8732                                                          J96

 J97                                                            6543

 -                                                                K632

 A86432                                                     T7

                                   AKQT54

                                   K82

                                   QJ85

                                   -

Pamela  and Alastair took 6 by North light by 2 after a T lead for a 100% board (4.17%) while Robin and Don took 6NT light by North 1 after a  lead for a 90% board (3.75%). If the opposition had made their 6 or 6NT contracts as they should have they would have had 24% & 8% boards respectively (1% & 0.33%). Although 6 is potentially tricky if East holds up their K after the North ruffs the initial lead and leads the Q with best line to cross to North’s hand to ruff a  before discarding North’s remaining  on 3 top  before drawing remaining trumps.

So back to my original question is it luck or skill that is more important to determine which of the favoured pairs will win an open pairs tournament? My theory is that for fields of diverse skill luck is the bigger factor once pairs have obtained the skills and experience to have reached grandmaster status. And if it is luck then we lesser pairs that have not reached grandmaster status also have a slim chance if we are really lucky on the day to strike the right pairs on the right hands.

Started by SEAN LYNCH on 15 Dec 2018 at 11:23PM